Winning sports betting picks, tips and strategies along with money management advice and a winning handicapping system are what we specialize in at ProfessionalGambler.com. I’m JV Miller. In sports betting there are eighty-one key factors that play a role in determining the outcome of a football game.
We’re talking about North American football. NFL and NCAA. 44 factors are subjective and 37 are statistical. Today, I’m going to go over the five most overrated subjective factors that play a role in determining the outcome of a football game. In explaining methods and approaches to making money betting on sports, The focus is just as much about weight as the factor of themselves.
What factors apply and to what degree are they applicable are the two pressing questions that separate winners from losers in this business. All amateurs inevitably get this wrong all the time. Most veterans get this wrong most of the time.
It takes a very seasoned and self-disciplined type of personality to be able to subjectively apply the right principles with the right amount of significance. Not over-valuing or hyping the importance of factors while at the same time making sure not to overlook or discount factors. Key factors, do not exist in a vacuum. They interlock and interdependent and must be consciously and unconsciously considered in respect to all the other factors. There are some factors that very commonly don’t get the weight they deserve.
In another video we talked about the five most underrated subjective factors that play a role in determining the outcome of a football game. Today, we’re going to go over the five most overrated factors. Revenge. This is especially over-regarded when handicapping the pros the line maker already knows 99% of sports bettors will over value this factor and so he accounts for he bakes it in the line. Revenge is a factor, it’s important to know, but it’s also important to know exactly what its effect is. It’s a much bigger role in college athletics because pride and tradition are so prevalent the college level.
What do we mean when we say revenge as a factor that plays a role in determining the outcome of a football game? Well, for instance, when a team has been embarrassed in front of its home fans and wishes to return the favor’ Or if the key player was injured the last time two teams met; if a team lost to another team as a result of a bad call or the lack of a call at the hands of the other team cheating. That wrong team seeks to return the favor.
That’s revenge. Don’t let this go unnoticed but only give it the weight it deserves. Change of surface. Is is the game being played on real grass or artificial turf or a hybrid of the two? Before you weigh this factor — and it is indeed a factor — you better find out if your team has been practicing on that kind of surface.
All because they normally don’t play on a particular kind of surface, it doesn’t mean they haven’t been able to make the arrangements to practice on that surface. Before you weigh this factor, you need to know those things. Most amateur handicappers just automatically deduct points for a change of surface. But, there are instances in which you might want to deduct no points or maybe even add a point or two for a change of surface. A winning handicapper looks at each situation individually and weighs this or any other factor accordingly. Injuries.
Injuries are an important factor, there’s no question. But can we overcompensate for it? Of course, we can and we do. Turns out one of the most overrated factors is injury.
Is the injured player out or is he playing injured if he’s able to play you must ascertain the extent and the nature of the injury. Are you aware that your injured player is not feeling any pain on the football field, most likely? This is a result of a combination of adrenaline and opioid pain medicine which plays a very big role in professional sports It’s not a topic that we like to talk about too often, but it’s important to know.
Never lose sight of the fact that there are eleven men on the offense and eleven men on the defense and on the sidelines twenty-two more to fill in. Divide the number of injured players by all the players on the team and then ascertain the level of ineffectiveness that his not playing for the team or being injured will have overall on the game. It’s real easy to go overboard and remember the line maker knows what you know. He’s expecting you to over-blow this. Home team versus away team.
Most sports bettors are notorious for over emphasizing this. You’ll hear bettors say they give the home team in pro football and automatic three points and up to six points in college. There are no arbitrary rules that automatically apply, and in fact there are many reasons especially in college why some teams do better on the road.
For a lot of top 25 college teams the fact is there are collegiate policies that require that a team play every single player who dresses out and shows up for a game. For at least a minimum amount of time. Well, there are also policies that say that when a team travels they don’t have to take the whole team. They just take a core group of players that they need to play the game This means that on the away games, a lot of those teams will naturally take their very best. This is just one example.
Now sometimes home team advantage is much more significant in college. Emotions, traditions and competition can be much more volatile and much more present in college athletics than in the pros. And the number one most overrated factor that plays a role in determining the outcome of a football game. Weather and change of climate. This is the most obvious handicap in the real world – weather – doesn’t really come between two teams in such a dramatic fashion. Usually.
Not today. Always remember the line maker is on top of this too. Common sense along with inside knowledge are the ingredients for reasonably measuring the effect of weather.
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